Retrospective Analysis of Malaria Transmission Patterns and Its Association with Meteorological Variables in Lowland Areas of Plateau State, Nigeria

Abstract

Malaria is a major public health problem in the remote areas of lower Plateau state. This study described malaria transmission patterns and analysed the impact of meteorological variables on the disease transmission in the study area. The study was a retrospective study, which involved the use of archival data relating to rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and malaria case reports. Data on climatic factors and malaria cases were obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency and the general hospitals from selected areas of Langtang North, Mikang and Shendam from 2003-2015. Estimated smoothed trend line series for climatic factors were obtained based on structural time-series models in combination with the Kalman filter. Generalized Additive Models were used to model trends in malaria incidences over time and it’s lagged association with meteorological variables. The results show a significant cyclical trend in malaria incidences in Langtang-North and Shendam (p<0.001) whereas the trend in Mikang was also significant (p<0.001) but an increasing linear one. The association between monthly malaria cases and mean monthly meteorological variables were significant (p< 0.05) at different time lags and locations. Our findings suggest that meteorological factors are among the major determinants of malaria transmission in the study areas. This will be informative in planning intervention strategies specific to each study area.